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Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and annmarie hordern. Jonathan lisa told me off last time we did this, lets get to the weekend. I will start every hour with that. Live from new york city, good morning for audience worldwide. It is payrolls friday, equity futures on the s p 500 positive by. 1 . The most important payrolls print since the last one, until the next one. Will a double down on the booming 353,000 of last month. Lisa we are positioned for heads i win, tails i win, ultimately no one is betting on a reaccelerating inflation growth and thats what we are expecting from the payrolls report. 200 k is the estimate this morning. Weve had the adp, the services component, the employment component. None of it was this big blowout upside surprise that we all feared a few weeks ago. I was going through this and every time i kept kicking myself everything about the data has been goldilocks. Its the reason why people are pricing out the idea of reinflating the economy or true real weakness either. I
Lisa-abramowiczNew-yorkGood-morningSave-unionUnion-takingNew-visionJoe-bidenStudent-loanInflation-higherMarket-pricingMeeting-bankBank-japanPoised potentially for of for the week of losses. In the bond market, the epicenter of the headlines. 170 is the estimate on wall street. Tom we will conflate a lot of economic talk. My major message is that the market still matter. It will be fascinating to see the reaction to the jobs report. Is a good news or bad news later this morning . Tom you know how much i hate that. I get confused by it. Employment is a big deal. 170 is a generous number and the Unemployment Rate matters. Jonathan lisa, adp was bad news. Lisa if you look at the revisions they have revised upwards. Their expectation is that the whisper number is 170,000. At what point is not good news but not too bad that means economic armageddon. They are waiting for something to break the cycle. Even though we have some common markets but they are still at 4. 7 . Jonathan there is a question in a program that was what is nobody asking you about . 2024. How bizarre is that . Its weird that we just need to get through the Fou
Good-newsBad-newsUnemployment-rateProgram-nobodyFourth-quarterBond-marketFree-cashFree-cash-flowCash-flowLook-likeJonathan-ferroCredit-cardI would argue that today we should be 100 basis points higher. It is clear that that is not done. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning, everyone. Tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. It is jobs day in america. Important report in 29 minutes. Wages, wages, wages. That is what matters this morning. Jonathan today is payrolls, next week is cpi. That should set us up for the meeting in september. You will get another payrolls and cpi report that, too. Tom no Forward Guidance into this report. That data is there at 8 30 and the fed will have to adjust. Curve inversion of 37 basis points. Jonathan the fed has pushed back in a way that we thought they would. Yields have responded on the front end by 17 basis on the twoyear. Equity markets kept on rounding. We have ripped off that market low. Close to 20 higher from june 16 on the nasdaq. Tom it does for to into the fixed income space. Frankly, that has been as dynamic as equit
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