The base case scenario of Sensex hitting 74,000 mark has a 50% probability and suggests that the BSE Sensex will trade at a trailing P/E multiple of 24.7x, ahead of the 25-year average of 20x.
The Wall Street bank cut its Brent price outlook for the third quarter this year to $75 from $77.50 per barrel and lowered its fourth quarter forecast to $70 from $75. It also cut its forecasts for 2024 by $5, and now sees prices at $70 in the first quarter, at $72.50 in the second, and at $75 and $80 for the final two quarters, respectively.
"Buy cyclicals, industrials, financials and discretionary consumption over globally-facing sectors or defensives like consumer staples," says Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley.