The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 3.4% in the year to January, in line with the outcome recorded in December. This remains the equal softest print for monthly inflation estimate since November 2021.
Australia. The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 4.3% in the year to November, down from 4.9%yr in October and a recent peak of 8.4%yr in December 2022. The November print was a touch softer than Westpac’s forecast and the market’s median forecast of 4.4%yr. At face value the November Monthly CPI Indicator suggests that if there are any risks to our current December quarter CPI forecast of 0.8%qtr it is very slightly to the downside.
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The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 4.9% in the year to October, down from 5.6%yr in September and the recent peak of 8.4%yr at December 2022. This was meaningfully less than Westpac’s forecast of 5.3%yr, and the market median forecast of 5.2%yr.
The Monthly CPI lifted 0.6% in August as expected. Inflation was restrained by various government energy rebates but there is still an upside risk to both our CPI and Trimmed Mean forecasts.