Trump is already scrambling the map this year. In utah where the Mormon Electorate is especially unfavorable to trump his lead is down to 5. 5. Prompting the campaign to dispatch mike pence to Salt Lake City less than two weeks before the election to do damage control. Hes there tomorrow. Mitt romney himself a mormon won utah by 48 in 2012. Given trumps Polling Deficit his lack of ads it came as a surprise that according to the Washington Post trump has stopped holding highdollar fundraisers and relying on online donations which tend to be much smaller. Thats after Campaign Financial reports show more money spent than raised in the month of september. Reports add to growing speculation that donald trump is not in very deep psychological Sense Running to be president of the United States so much as hes running to build up a fan base for donald trump. With the advent of trump tower
and then i could advertise a project that im doing. Like doral or something. And spend half a Million Dolla
Happens. Hillary clinton is currently leading donald trump by between 1 and 7 points in North Carolina, a state barack obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012. Theres also new polling out of arizona, another early voting state where trump is barely clinging to a onepoint lead. Among respondents who said they took advantage of early voting, four in ten, clinton is ahead by ten points. A bunch of new data on early voting. Well talk about it in just a bit. Arizona is a handful of reliable republican states including texas and utah where donald trump is already scrambling the map this year. In utah where the mormon electorate is especially unfavorable to trump his lead is down to 5. 5. Prompting the campaign to dispatch mike pence to Salt Lake City less than two weeks before the election to do damage control. Hes there tomorrow. Mitt romney himself a mormon won utah by 48 in 2012. Given trumps polling deficit his lack of ads it came as a surprise that according to the Washington Post trump has
has all kinds of different data information on these specific individuals. their vote history, likely candidate preference. all kinds of things that you can look at. what you get then from the county auditor or from the secretary of state are individual level returns. so you know exactly who voted early, and many times you know how they voted early, either in person or by mail. then you can imagine that back to your existing database or voter file. and you know enough about those people you sort of profiled the them whether it s through their age, their education level, their ethnicity to be pretty confident who they re actually voting for based on the models you have. no, exactly right. you look at two separate data points. the first is what we call a preference candidate model. every voter will have a score from 100-1. out of 100 mitch stewarts, barack obama would get 1 vote.
through their age, their education level, their ethnicity to be pretty confident who they re actually voting for based on the models you have. no, exactly right. you look at two separate data points. the first is what we call a preference candidate model. every voter will have a score from 100-1. out of 100 mitch stewarts, barack obama would get 1 vote. ten people would vote for barack obama. 90 for mitt romney. you look at that and then you also look at your turnout score. how likely are you to vote if somebody were not to remind you? you have a score of 100-1 on every single voter in that state. what you want to do with early vote, in most states, you want your supporters who have a middling turnout score, folks you aren t superconfident they will vote on election day unless you remind them. you want them to vote early. if somebody lass a high turnout