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Afternoon Market Recap for April 16, 2021
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Soybean and wheat prices finish Thursday’s session with moderate gains
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher, with market-friendly supply and demand fundamentals still in place, despite some disappointing export data from USDA this morning. Soybeans firmed by 0.5%, with some wheat contracts up as much as 0.75% on an ensuing round of technical buying. Corn tested moderate gains early in the session but eroded back into the red by the close.
Parts of the Central Plains could see as much as 1” or more additional rainfall between Friday and Monday, with areas farther east likely to see less measurable moisture during that time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day-outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry weather in the Plains between April 22 and April 28, with seasonally wet weather likely for the Corn Belt. The forecast also calls for widespread cooler-than-normal temperatures.
With last Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA firmly in the rearview mirror, traders are once again focusing on spring weather. And Mother Nature hasn’t always been cooperative this past week.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures have descended on the Corn Belt in the U.S., and frost has hammered parts of Europe earlier this week. That adverse weather has helped firm grain prices in recent sessions. Along with tight supplies, weather conditions have helped soybean prices stay above $14 per bushel, with most wheat contracts trending above $6 per bushel.
And corn is moving tantalizingly close to $6 per bushel – a benchmark not seen since July 2013. Are there enough bullish factors in play to help push prices above that level?
Missed some market news this week? Here s what Jacquie Holland, Ben Potter and our Ag Market IQ bloggers have been following.
Ag Marketing IQ
There was a lot of market surprise on lower U.S. acreage intentions. Will we see these numbers increase? Are they down due to higher input expenses or is it possible the USDA was too high on this same report in March 2020? I am sure any growers reading this are saying, “of course they were.” The acreage question is a big one, but there are plenty of other fundamentals in the grain picture in addition to non-ag world events that can impact price. One year ago, the “experts” were telling you how poor price prospects were in the grain and oilseeds markets. To sum up most of these comments: prices were never going up again. Today? Many farmers believe prices are never going down. Who can blame them? These same “experts” are talking about how tight our carryouts look and it’s hard not to believe more upside is
Chicago and Kansas City follow Minneapolis futures higher on yield concerns
Corn up 1-2 cents
Wheat up 8-11 cents
Corn
Corn prices inched up this morning, supported by ongoing planting delays in Brazil. Rainy forecasts in the Midwest over the next few days are also contributing to the morning’s gains.
USDA releases its weekly export sales report this morning. Old crop corn export sales are likely to register smaller volumes than last week, with market analysts projecting a range between 19.7 million – 35.4 million bushels. New crop corn export sales are expected to range between 2.0 million – 11.8 million bushels.
USDA reported two large daily flash sales of old crop corn during the week ending April 1. Japan ordered 4.4 million bushels of corn to be delivered in the 2020/21 marketing year. An unknown buyer also booked nearly 4.0 million bushels of corn scheduled for 2020/21 delivery.
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