Probably the debate on valuations is over or even if it is taking place, the majority has accepted that yes valuations are high but at the same time liquidity is also high which is ensuring that the street is under the control of bulls. Now there is enough historical evidence to show that valuations matter and justifications don t stand the test of time. Now to take care of the valuation factor, investors looking to invest in midcap space should just push the filter levels a bit higher and should look more closely at business and financial parameters before investing. Right from whether the trend in promoters shareholding to dividend track record to what is the debt situation. Some hard work will ensure that when the street gets into a mode of correction, probability and yes only probability of relatively less drawdown in portfolio value.
Unlike last quarter of 2023, when nifty and sensex used to witness correction and mid-cap index was able move higher. Since the start of 2024, the mid-cap index is also participating in the correction, clearly indicating that some profit booking is taking place in this segment of the market. Having said that, if one looks at the flow of money to the mutual funds, a good amount of it is still coming in funds which are focussed on mid or small cap. There is no way one can fight with liquidity, if it is going to mid caps and they are moving up irrespective of valuations or quality of stocks one cannot argue. But the only thing which as an investor one can do is to be careful when taking exposure to this segment of the market. Stay away from stocks where there is a narrative that this sector will do well because of ABCD reasons or the company will get such and such orders worth this much. There is enough evidence in history to show that more than anything else, checks and balances are most
The movement of nifty and sensex needs to be delinked with what has happened in the last quarter and what might happen to mid-cap in the coming quarter. There is no way one can fight with liquidity, if it is going to mid caps and they are moving up irrespective of valuations or quality of stocks one cannot argue. But the only thing which as an investor one can do is to be careful when taking exposure to this segment of the market. Stay away from stocks where there is a narrative that this sector will do well because of XYZ reasons. At this point of time there is no dearth of tips floating in whatsapp group and telegram channels. But there is enough evidence in history to show that more than anything else, it is time to use checks and balances while making investment decisions.
For all those investors whose portfolio is titled in favour of the mid-caps need to do two things in current market conditions. First, don t extrapolate what has happened in the last one quarter to the mid caps stocks. Second, which is more important, be careful when taking fresh exposure to this segment of the market and apply checks and balances when investing and even after that be ready for some drawdown in the value of the stocks. How does one put checks and balances? Simple, have a look at fundamentals and it is not very tough, having a look at some of the critical ratios like ROE and ROCE would help in avoiding silly mistakes which are common in bullish markets.
Last week, the correction started with a private sector bank leading the fall. However, the very next trading session there was a sharp correction in mid-cap index and the markets breadth turned negative. This follow up of correction in a short span is a clear indication that high valuations are a weight on the street mind. This means higher probability of a correction in mid-cap space if there is any trouble with Nifty. So, be cautious while taking exposure as a correction mid-cap is more harsh in terms of price cut on individual stocks.