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By Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, Myriam Dunn Cavelty
Part II | Academic perspectives on future-oriented policy-making
Chapter 2: Imagined worlds: The politics of future-making in the twenty-first century
By Sheila Jasanoff
Chapter 3: How to know the future – and the past (and how not): A pragmatist perspective on foresight and hindsight 1
By Gunther Hellmann
By Michael C. Horowitz
By Francis J. Gavin
Uncertainties, scenarios, and their (un-)intended side effects
By Myriam Dunn Cavelty
Chapter 7: Uncertainty and precariousness at the policy–science interface: Three cases of climate-driven adaptation
By Maria Carmen Lemos, Nicole Klenk
Chapter 8: The anticipative medicalization of life:
Governing future risk and uncertainty in (global) health 1
How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future
Editor’s Note:
Intelligence assessments are made under tremendous time pressure with imperfect information, so it is no surprise that they are often wrong. They can be better, but the intelligence community often fails to use the best analytic techniques. Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn and Christian Ruhl of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania explain the current deficiencies in assessment techniques and argue that rigorous probabilistic forecasting, keeping score of assessments, and employing the “wisdom of crowds” produces better results.
Daniel Byman
In 1973, then-Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger argued that policymaking could be reduced to a process of “making complicated bets about the future,” noting that it would be helpful if he could be supplied with “estimates of the relevant betting odds.”