change a little bit. that s why there s so much uncertainty. we talk about the actual cone. you look at the last five years, and that s the forecast. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen, especially when you re measuring thousands of parameters. when you get into the models, you can get these small changes. how certain are you it can go north? every single computer model we have is pulling it to the north. but the big question we have is where the center s going to go. that s why we try to communicate the edge of that cone. the landfall literally could be right on the coast anywhere in florida and even up the carolinas. we could see a landfall too soon where you can have some damage right along the coast, but we re trying to communicate. even if it s offshore. look at the size, how big the storm is. even if it s offshore, that could bring some devastating impacts even on the coast. we re trying to communicate that size and really try to focus people on this
difference in the eventual movement of these storms, literally thousands of parameters that we re trying to measure and put into computer models to be able to get these tracks. a small change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that s why there s so much uncertainty. and we spend a lot of time talking about the actual cone because you look at the last five years, and that s the forecast error possible with that track. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen especially when you re measuring thousands of parameters trying to get the model how certain are you that it ll go north? every single computer model that we have is pulling this to the north, but the big question we have is about where that center s going to go, and that s why we re really trying to communicate the aspect of that landfall literally could be right on the coast anywhere in florida and even up the carolinas. we could see a landfall too soon where you could have some damage
had to nudge to the north. now it has an influence. tiny changes can make a big difference in the eventual movement of the storms. thousands of parameters that we re trying to measure and put into models to get the tracks. a small wobble or change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that s why there s so much uncertainty. we spent a lot of time talking about the actual cone. you look at the last five years and that s the forecast error possible with that tract. we try to communicate these uncertainties and it does possible, especially when you re measuring thousands of parameters trying to get it into the models. you can have small changes. how certain are you that it s going to go north? every computer model we have is pulling this north, but the big question is about where the center is going to go. that s why we re trying to communicate the edge of the cone. the land fall could be anywhere on the coast in florida or the carolinas. we could see a land fall too so