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The space-for-time substitution approach provides a valuable empirical assessment to infer temporal effects of disturbance from spatial gradients. Applied to predict the response of different ecosystems under current climate change scenarios, it remains poorly tested in microbial ecology studies, partly due to the trophic complexity of the ecosystems studied. The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica represent a trophically simple polar desert projected to experience drastic changes in water availability under current climate change predictions. We used this ideal model system to develop and validate a microbial space-for-time sampling approach, using the variation of geochemical profiles that follow alterations in water availability and reflect past and future changes in the system. Our framework measured soil electrical conductivity, pH, and water activity in situ to geochemically define 17 space-for-time transects from the shores of four dynamic and two static Dry Valley lakes. We ident

United statesNew yorkNew zealandTaylor valleyUnited kingdomStates leeMdvs niederbergerRamoneda massagueLakes vandaVan hornRr core teamMicrobial community analysisZealand antarctic research instituteZealand ministry of businessMicrobial community composition along wetness transectsCambridge university press