I do not think it dissuades the fed from doing what they had planned to do. The fact that inflation is being made out the way it is and the decision could be driven by it, i assume that they will not be data dependent. It is going to be employment and other things driven, which is doing very well. The fact that they may not tighten or may take remedial measures because of low inflation, that is news. Yellen is getting dovish and it plays into that trend. The market has gotten a little short as well. That also plays into it. I think this is a fed the has to wait until they see the whites of the eyes of inflation before they raise rates again. I think we have to understand what kind of environment we are and it is still supportive of being in risk assets. Theres a lot of complacency in the risk market and i wonder when the fed actually does raise rates and does start to reduce the Balance Sheet if the market does not have to go through some sort of readjustment process. Jonathan joining
I do not think it dissuades the fed from doing what they had planned to do. The fact that inflation is being made out the way it is and the decision could be driven by it, i assume that they will not be data dependent. It is going to be employment and other things driven, which is doing very well. The fact that they may not tighten or may take remedial measures because of low inflation, that is news. Yellen is getting dovish and it plays into that trend. The market has gotten a little short as well. That also plays into it. I think this is a fed the has to wait until they see the whites of the eyes of inflation before they raise rates again. I think we have to understand what kind of environment we are and it is still supportive of being in risk assets. Theres a lot of complacency in the risk market and i wonder when the fed actually does raise rates and does start to reduce the Balance Sheet if the market does not have to go through some sort of readjustment process. Jonathan joining
The zune the ballot will be held secret. Chinas trade gap widens for a fifth month. Is there anything President Trump can do about it . Matt i want to answer that question, but will value we are less than half an hour from the european open. Futures trading down this morning after a mixed close yesterday. Not much direction in markets the last couple of days and not a lot of direction, meaning futures are already, but not really significant drops. The asian pack down, as well. Booms threeday chart a little, in bunds, gain in yields and today it looks like we are coming up from the open here just a little bit. 0. 462. We have been in this rage with bunds a quarter percent to half a percent. We will see if we can get change in direction. What are you seeing on the gmm. Guy we have got the german trade surplus widening, but the chinese trade surplus widening out. That is something to Pay Attention to. In terms of markets this morning, solid session yesterday for emerging markets, todays s
Rand is lower. By all be joined representative of Goldman Sachs. Matt very interesting effect on the currency. Lets take a look at the effect on futures. Donald trumps warning for north korea had down across the board and these are more substantial moves in futures and we have an seeing of late. Cech futures down. 8 of 1 , euro 1 . Ks teachers down. 6 of we have not seen moves this big in a while. Nd yieldso see bu coming down. Investors are looking for the safety of government dead across the globe. You see that playing out in germany as well, bund yields. 46 . O we have been stuck in a tight range in the last month and a half, just a half of a percent of the yield. We were looking at yields of the court percent. That is the range that bunds have been stuck in, difficult to get out. Guy it will be interesting to see if the low volatility environment starts to crack and the vix is showing record short when it comes to that contract. We are seeing markets breaking lower in equities. Jap
U. S. Cpi is due out today. Can the fed raise rates again this year if that measure remains subdued . s head start. She is holding a 15 point lead, but will still need a coalition partner. Who will it be, matt . Matt that is the question we are all discussing in germany. We will be discussing that over the next six weeks, for sure. Right now, a more immediate threat. We are less than 30 minutes from the european open. Futures are down across the board after the big drop in tehe u. S. Yesterday. As guy mentioned, people fleeing into haven assets. Bitcoin is trading at an all intraday high. The bunds, coming down. This trend is interesting. Over the last month we have come down from 0. 6 to 0. 5 . Trendmove in a downward as investors prepare for more risk. If i look at it one day look at the bund trade, we have come down in yields, meaning investors are buying debt, se eking safety and pushing the yield down to 0. 4 . Guy gmm is a fantastic function because it creates a score card and ra