but you can t really find the first half of the third year of a president s term that has been negative ever in the history of the superior 500 ever insurance september for 1938 going to world war 2. 1939. excuse me. and the fed keeps doing what they re doing stupidly thinking that it s going to fight inflation but raising rates, not understanding that the control mechanism is supposed to kill lending. lending continues to be robust because the bank cost bases are so low. edward: i wanted to ask about that. the fed s rate hikes and tightening have been leading the markets. the fed is predicting two more or three more smaller rate hikes. will the fed drive the market again next year in 2023 and are we near the bottom then for the markets about mid year? i believe the market bottom
half of the year was dreadful until the beginning of march. so, look for the beginning of the year to have significant volatility, but with volatility becomes opportunity. because what s not being priced into the market is all the bad news is in the market. inflation, the fed, corporate profits, the dollar, what s not being priced into it is when does fed pivot? when does inflation come down? maybe the dollar comes down a little bit. so, these things for average investors, yes, you re going to have to hold onto your seat for a while in next year, but don t miss out on the potential upside that is going to come eventually with the market bottom. david: i m afraid to say, danielle, that a lot of economists say the upside, we re going to have to wait for the upside because we re going to have recession in 2023. more spending in washington, the higher the interest rates
indicator. we try to be opportunistic. optimistic but realistic. i want to give francis newton stacy the last word here. i know you don t want to be the grinch. i know what your work says. so give it to us easy with a minute to go. do you see any silver linings potentially? no, i love what larry is saying and i love the positive attitude. where he s right is despite what the fed is saying, you know, you look at the ten year, you look at treasuries, gold, silver, the dollar. those things are telling us that the find is about ready to wind down their cycle. if that s true, you ll find a market bottom in there somewhere. usually the market bottom comes after the last rate hike. the different is covid where they set a new precedent where they could change the game entirely and the market took off from there. so yes, i think we have a market pivot. there will be gridlock in