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More than a decade after the global adoption of REDD+ as a climate change mitigation strategy, countries have started accessing results-based payments. However, the extent to which payments are actually based on results is unknown, necessitating program evaluations to establish the contribution of REDD+ to the Paris NDCs. We undertake a microeconometric evaluation of one of the most globally significant REDD+ initiatives, Indonesia’s moratorium on forest concessions, in which a payment has been awarded. At the agreed US$5/tCO2-eq, the value of our estimated cumulative carbon emissions far exceeds the proposed payment from the donor, Norway. Although cost-effective, the emissions reductions only contribute 3 to 4% of Indonesia’s NDC. This contribution could be increased in new initiatives with better-designed incentives and institutional arrangements. All replication materials, including processed datasets, regression routines, and R scripts used to generate our results, have been

Glasgow cityUnited kingdomJakarta rayaEugenie dugouaPaul ferraroSefi rothCeline lofthus gaasrudTom smithUnited nations framework convention on climateGreen climate fundLondon school of economicsInstitute for researchGlasgow universityInstitute of biodiversityInternational climateGrantham research institute on climate