to get the support of those majority makers. that s really where you can get into switch ration where the house could fall into chaos. and it s not necessarily a bad chaos, because what you could get is the first speaker at least not no long time, elected with bipartisan support. that would be an game-changer in american politics. i think that remains not a likely scenario although a possible one. if, let s say mccarthy did is win the speakership. or whoever it is. here s my big question. when it was possible that republicans were gonna have a 30 seat majority it seemed essentially inevitable that they would, for instance, impeach joe biden. that the cries to do that from the base, the way that donald trump would be urging them to do that from the sidelines, it would be impossible for mccarthy to hold them back even if he thought it was bad politics. with a five vote margin, that
you are in a swing district. you are frontline member who sought your seat lost or seat in 2018. how do those folks figure in the calculations of how mccarthy and the caucus as a whole operate in the majority? well, chris, those majority makers for the time being are supporting kevin mccarthy. this tends to happen. the majority makers are the ones who tend to make get the most attention from leadership, the most support in trying to win their elections and that means campaign contributions. so where those members will be critical is if mccarthy fails to get the votes. and by the way of matt gates calling members of the house, the republican saying there is no way mccarthy has their votes that he can guarantee but we will see if that s true or not. where those majority makers can make a big difference is if mccarthy doesn t get the votes, what happens next? a candidate to the right of
mccarthy is probably not going to get the support of those majority makers. that s really where you can get into switch ration where the house could fall into chaos. and it s not necessarily a bad chaos, because what you could get is the first speaker at least not no long time, elected with bipartisan support. that would be an game-changer in american politics. i think that remains not a likely scenario although a possible one. if, let s say mccarthy did is win the speakership. or whoever it is. here s my big question. when it was possible that republicans were gonna have a 30 seat majority it seemed essentially inevitable that they would, for instance, impeach joe biden. that the cries to do that from the base, the way that donald trump would be urging them to do that from the sidelines, it would be impossible for mccarthy to hold them back even if he thought it was bad politics. with a five vote margin, that
has gone back and forth, back and forth, so many times. she actually told me pointblank, i think my district is 218. she s even putting that kind of pressure on herself. yeah. and there have been a number of districts like that, too. you mention the majority makers, one of them also is tom malinowsky of jersey. he had a similar argument and said we cannot hold the house without this district. this spans into the new york suburbs, it also goes into more rural districts. it was more of a democratic district even though he beat the same opponent by just one point two years ago. that was a district at the time that democrats, joe biden carried by ten points. after redistricting, joe biden carried that same new district by about three points. so it is now more favored for republicans, but it s somehow for republicans even though it is still democratic leaning. if somehow malinowsky were able to hold onto the district,
history. so new hampshire, pennsylvania, those are two of the races i ll be watching early tomorrow night. let me bring up another one. and dana bush there are three democratic incumbents we re watching. you have spent time thinking about there race, the second district, luria versus higgins. prominent member of the sixth committee, she s on her heels. i m particularly going to be so interested to see what happens in what we call virginia two, the second district there. and part of the reason is because just the logistics of it, the polls close at 7:00 in virginia. they tend to count relatively quickly in virginia. and so we might know earlier. though in 2020 it took a lot longer in that district. but also in 2018, elaine luria was one of the majority makers. she was one of the main reasons why democrats took over and took over so big in the united states house of representatives. and it s also a district that