When this commentary gig gets old, I think I’ll take up… throwing needles? But so far so good, putting this out six days a week. Yesterday I glanced at the calendar, and we’re 10 percent of the way through 2024 already! Still raining here in Northern California, and the flooding has caused a lot of concern in the mortgage industry, especially among companies servicing loans on any houses that are damaged, as well as owners of MBS with loans in them on any potentially damaged homes. At least the days are seeing more sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere. Daylight Savings kicks in on Sunday, March 10, just a little over a month away, and goes on until November. (Hawai’i, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and most of Arizona blow off this clock changing stuff.) Today’s Commentary podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Vesta, the new, modern Loan Origination System (LOS) which helps lenders reduce their co
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“Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago. Dollar-wise, certainly we’re nowhere near the $4+ trillion funded in 2021. What are some of the other MBA thoughts about 2023 and beyond?” Wise economists will tell you, “If you’re going to put a number on it, don’t put a date on it, and if you’re going to put a date on it, don’t put a number on it.” That said, for total originations of 1-4 unit mortgages, the MBA expects 2022 to clock in at $2.2 trillion, 2023 at $1.8 trillion, and then move higher in 2024 to $2.3 trillion. The MBA also is predicting that mortgage debt outstanding (1-4 family) will be somewhat steady at $13.4-$13.8 trillion, especially given all those 30-year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3.5 percent, but for 30-year interest rates to drop to near 5.50 percent range by year end as the U.S. economy slows som