win this race against murphy, he has done so much better than expected. it looks right now like the state senate president, an extremely powerful democratic, he may lose his reelection on the coat tails, or against the coattails of this strong performance. and then virginia. we see the black turnout is not what the democrats needed. young people did not come out in the numbers they needed, the coalition was not there, louden county, key voting blocks. yeah, you mentioned virginia beach. it has a republican history, virginia beach, does, but joe biden won it for the democrats last year. 5.5 points, youngkin brings it back into the win column. also a big one for him last night, right next door, the city
they re winning 95% of biden voters. the youngkin campaign says they re winning some old biden voters. the proof is in the election tonight. the first place we may find out that issue about democrats from a year ago, maybe voting youngkin is going to be in this town we re about to check in with now. msnbc s chris jansing is in louden county. and with me on set is my partner for election coverage for the rest of the day and night, kristen welker. that s the question all of us have. are there is there such thing as a biden/youngkin voter? mcauliffe s folks don t believe it is. youngkin s folks believe louden county will tell us if they re right and mcauliffe is wrong. i can tell you i ve met them. some people have told me that they re frustrated by what s going on in washington. the question obviously is how
many of them are there. as you look at this whole issue of math versus momentum, chuck, the math is pretty clear. i mean, look, this is a place that turned blue with the movement to the suburbs, louden county here is a place that s doubled its population in the last 20 years. i think it went up 30% in the last census. biden won here by 25%. the current governor, ralph northam by almost 20%. i just got a text from someone close to the mcauliffe campaign who sounded a little bit more optimistic. he says the early numbers they re looking at turnout show that they are going past 2017. you know that would be great news for the mcauliffe campaign. but what we have heard from youngkin and what we have actually seen on the ground and i ve been here three days. i ve been to a couple of young kin events, they say they have the enthusiasm. they certainly have the numbers. 1,000 people turned out at an event at the fairgrounds last
night. a lot of excitement there. they had tables set up with t-shirts and handing out bumper stickers. they say a lot of suburban voters may stay home because they re exhausted. we ll see tonight. we ll see. the youngkin campaign believes they can win this race and only get low 40s in loudoun county, but i had another republican swear to me they may get the high 40s. we ll all believe that if and when we see it. chris, thank you. let me go over to new jersey. rehema, the stunning stat to me is that no democratic incumbent governor won re-election since the 70s. considering how blue this is, for some election junkies they re going, wait, oh, yeah, maybe you re right.
more than 15 points away from the republicans. geographically, it s not much, but these are population centers. there s more than 2 million people here in these counties and cities. this is like coe county outside of richmond. these are big population centers in virginia and it was the exact opposite story. here s dramatic example, louden county. there s more than 400,000 people in louden county. biden won it by 25. let s roll back to the last election before donald trump came on the scene. look at this. 2012, mitt romney was four points behind in louden county. donald trump comes on the scene, now republicans are losing by 25 points. places like louden county, big population centers, suburban areas, metropolitan areas, a lot of white voters with college degrees. that s a group that s dramatically moved away from the republican party. here s the question for tuesday night. can glenn youngkin, the republican, this has been his big goal, can he roll back the clock to something like this?