Squeaker which side prevails. So whether it is saccone by two or conor lamb by two matters less than it is a four point margin or whatever it ends up. Even if the democrats looses, if it is close, the democrats are going to claim it is a sign. Difficult for them to claim it is a Success Story even if saccone victory. Psychologically, there is a different impact especially for republican members. Tomorrow morning if the republicans were to gather for their Conference Meeting and if they have lost this seat, there will be a different feeling inside the room about concern and panic for what november brings. The difference psychologically for republicans tomorrow morning is different than if they loose. Republicans have poured a lot
of money into this. Yeah. Through pacs and the rnc has put a Million Dollars into it, if they lose this seat, alarm bells going off. And more republicans deciding to call it quits and retire. Saying this environment is tough for me if i am in a suburban distric
at richmond where it plans to count ballots as they are ready in richmond, nearly 27,000 preelection ballots were cast. 6,000 by mail and 20,000 in person. we should note, typically, early votes largely favor democrats. but there in virginia, both candidates put an emphasis on early voting. all right. pamela brown, thank you so much. appreciate it. let s go to john king. he is at the magic wall right now. john, tell us what you are looking are for right now. pretty soon, we get to count the votes which is great. what are we looking for? this is the map of 2021. obviously, it l start to fill in soon. if you go back to the 2020 presidential map, a big blowout for joe biden. that is glenn youngkin s challenge. democrats have been trending stronger and stronger in virginia over the last 10 or 15 years. the last republican win was in 2009. this was the last race for governor in 2017 so what does glenn youngkin have to do? he has to run it up. this rural red trump republican base. but
comparison right here. that is about 3 million less than the number of preelection votes cast just before the 2020 presidential election. what is the voter breakdown so far? majority democrats are more likely to vote by mail. and look at this breakdown. nearly identical to the breakdown of preelection day voters just before the november 2020 presidential election. jake? all right. pamela, thanks so much. let s go to john king at the magic wall now and john, what is governor newso m s path? keep him as blue. he s a democratic governor. if the counties say no we want a recall, they will fill in no. california is an overwhelmingly democratic state. let s go back to 2018. this is when gavin newsom was elected governor. he got 62% of the vote. what gavin newsom needs, forget the numbers and percentages. he needs for the map to look
hearing from team newsom is come fa dense. they believe they have the wind at their back. they are very sure that this process of nationalizing this raise has indeed worked, erin. thank you very much. let s go to john king at the magic wall. john, obviously, you look at an incredibly democratic state this is a complex question. where are you watching? what counties? what data? it is a complex because it s a quirk ki recall. number one, this is not gavin newsom versus anybody on the first question. it s keep newsom or recall newsom. that s what newsom wants to keep california blue. where do we look? let s go back to the 2018 election that reinforces kyung s point. this would be a tsunami for
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