[inaudible conversations] im the director of the center for military and diplomatic history. See. I see some familiar faces out there as well as new ones that are great. As most of you in this crowd i understand well the idea of seeing the future in principle holds a great appeal. So much of what we do in washington depends on allocating resources for developing capabilities and strategies based upon our expectations of the military environment in the future. The trouble of course is the prediction is difficult. Some would even say impossible. In the course of reading this terrific book, i was reminded of a saying by the chinese philosopher those who have knowledge do not predict and those who predict do not have knowledge. The author of the bestselling book forecasting emphasizes that humans are extremely gullible when listening to those that claim to know the future. Most anyone can get rich by selling to Corporate Executives and officials. When the prediction turns out to be wrong t
Death of expertise the death of exertise and the author, tom nichols. Is a professor in the National Security affairs at the u. S. Naval war college at Harvard Extension School where he worked great u. S. Air force to create a program for certificate in Nuclear Deterrence studies. However, we are not going to be talking about Nuclear Deterrence today. He is a former secretary of the navy fellow and how the Navy War College chair of public diplomacy. Previously he was chairman of the Strategy Policy Department at the Naval War College and before coming to newport, he taught International Relations and Russian Affairs at Dartmouth College in georgetown, university. He has had a distinguished career in washington d. C. He was personal staff for defense and Security Affairs in the u. S. Senate, so i see sis and currently senior associate at the Carnegie Council on ethics and International Affairs in new york city. He was recently a fellow in interNational Security program at the john f. Ke
Translating the values of the fifth amendment to the modern age. The fifth amendment, concerned about thought crimes, not exerting psychological pressure. He ended by quoting my hero about how government is the omnipotent teacher and you can see that in his letter he thought the court has to be a shining emblem for what Human Dignity needs. We heard the chief justice you can do the best job you could in the context of the law. Time will affect decisions. Youre suggesting its time for us to rethink the technology i think it is. I think miranda could be updated and could be more effective. There were at the love people thinking about this and hopefully, we can all come together and try to think about things like body cameras, video taping and interrogations. Other things that would update miranda. Thanks to both of you for being here tonight on our 11 of 12 cases in the landmark cases series. We appreciate your insight from the miranda case. Thank you so much for being in our audience to
But at the same time, 1 million or 2 Million People in the north, if we put them against Bashar Alassad, is changing the map. I think it is the question, the game in iraq is much more complicated because almost at the other age as it is called. Afghanistan is the same. In 200456, you pay for your mistakes and suddenly i think there is no good solution in iraq. It is frankly impossible. For us briefly please. Maybe we have to come back in 2003 in iraq. This moment when you say that, the secularization, it is sure that the institution was built in iraq with a lot of negotiation with different groups. The u. S. Dont have all the power to do anything special but when you talk about the perfect partner in 2007, creating this hour, tribal leaders and groups and groups fighting against isis, that was working. Agreeing with the u. S. Doing a good job with isis, destroyed in iraq. But then to the militia, we all know that. I have a lot of people they explained to me why and how and it is a call
Explore possibilities for useful legislation. As i say, they wont be easy, but it is amazing how if you try you can come up with something. One of the things that has been impressive about u. S. Negotiators with iran is how many good ideas they have come up with. And i would simply note to our audience that even david has come up with very interesting ideas that he slips in in the middle of paragraphs in his testimony. For example, when he testified last week before the house he said a sounder strategy involves including disablement steps with the destruction of a limited but carefully selected set of equipment. For example, the deal could include the destruction of certain key equipment such as vowels and pressure or flow measuring equipment. What he was saying to the House Committee was that if you want to reach a deal with iran that lowers the number of functioning centrifuges that doesnt mean that you have to destroy the centrifuges completely, rather you can destroy some critical