repaired. this is the tribal arab region, the sunni conservative heartland of the middle east where isis tends to thrive. so for me what s extraordinary about this allegation or this news reporting is that baghdadi has gone to a place that frankly he s not all that welcome in. the place that the u.s. has announced it was going to withdraw from until donald trump rather precipitously said, no, we re doing an about face, we re actually going to come back into syria to guard the oil wells, this is the place i would expect to find baghdadi. so, the questions in my mind are when did he repair to idlib? under what circumstances? was this precipitated by the fact the u.s. announced its military withdrawal from eastern syria in conjunction with the turkish invasion of northeast syria? also, where did the intelligence come from? there are all kinds of deals
there is a huge protest movement against the central government, and particularly against iranian-backed militia groups in iraq. isis has the most potential to reorganize and to resurge in a place like iraq rather than syria especially now the americans have decided to come back into syria. it s very strange. you know, i don t doubt that the reporting has been credible. i don t doubt that, in fact, baghdadi was, indeed, targeted there based on credible intelligence. but frankly, as somebody who has written a book on isis and somebody who has written a profile on baghdadi, the thing i want to know the most right now is why the hell did he think he could be safe in idlib. this is the last place, if i were him, that i d want to go. as you mentioned earlier this month, trump announced he would pull back troops in the face of a turkish invasion on northern syria. how do you think baghdadi s possible death will affect the
donald trump s precipitous decision to withdraw from syria, a decision, by the way, which has now been reversed. we won t get into that. but a deal between ankara and moscow was to carve up the region of northern and northeast syria, yeah. and the most important thing for the russians is to ensure that idlib is no longer a stronghold or a safe haven for jihadist organizations that are looking to attack russia s primary military base, which is just to the west of idlib province. so idlib is the center of action, as far as i m concerned, as a syria watch. that s where the deal making is going to take place. so for baghdadi to go there is quite extraordinary for somebody like me. this is the last a place i would expect him to go. i would expect him to go either into iraq, which, by the way, right now is in the midst of a massive crisis verging almost on a civil war.
this is idlib province. idlib province, the most predominant jihadist faction of al qaeda. what s important to keep in mind here is al qaeda broke from the organization that has become isis in around 2013, 2014. so baghdadi does not have many friends in idlib. now, it s true there might be some isis sleeper cells or isis factions that have infiltrated into idlib in recent months or years. but this is not hospitable at the ra terrain for him. the most hospitable terrain is where the u.s. announced it was going to withdrawn from, the eastern part of syria, jazeera. this is the bryer patch of isis operations. when they were booted out of iraq in around 2010, 2011, when they were strategically defeated by u.s. forces in conjunction with iraqi security forces, this is the area to which they
if al qaeda, as is widely known, is the predominant jihadist organization in idlib, is still in control of that province which i am not under any, you know, indication that it s not it s very strange that baghdadi would go to that area of northwestern syria. again, the area that isis has thrived in has been jazeera, which is the eastern, mostly central and southeastern syria. this is the area that is the gateway, the border lands between syria and iraq. remember, isis it came into its own in iraq. it was known as al qaeda in iraq as richard pointed out. but when it was strategically defeated in the period of about 2010 to 2011, it repaired into syria. this is where it s basically set up shop. vis-a-vis, the desert lands, the areas that are difficult for any kind of government or regime to