Thomas W. Spoehr conducts and supervises research on national defense matters. Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers stand guard at a damaged petrol station near the site of a bomb attack to a convoy of Afghan security forces, in Kabul on April 21, 2021. WAKIL KOHSAR / AFP / Getty Images
Key Takeaways
Without the current small but meaningful U.S. military presence, Afghanistan (at least outside Kabul) will likely fall to the Taliban.
Since 2014, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has been limited to training and assisting the Afghans not fighting. But that limited mission was hugely important.
Today’s civil wars “end” with times of peace interrupted by intermittent violence. Success means ensuring longer periods of relative peace.