Financials: June Bonds are currently 23 lower at 143’17,down about 6’00 for the last week. 10 Year Notes 16 lower at 120’01.5, down 2’12 for the week.
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5/20/2021 2:28:01 PM GMT
Financials: As of this writing (6:15am) June Bonds are 5 higher at 156’07 overnight and 25 higher over the last 5 sessions. 10 Year Notes are 4 higher at 132’05, up 7 for the week. The 5 year notes are 2 higher at 124’0 and up 3 for the week. Since last week yields are slightly lower with the 2 year down 2 basis points yielding 0.15%, the 5 year down 2 basis points at 0.85%, the 10 year down 2 at 1.67% and the 30 year bond down 4 at 2.37%. The overall trend remains down. The FMOC minutes were released yesterday and the market had little response. The minutes indicated what we already know: Things are getting better, inflation is a transitory risk, however, the Fed will remain data dependent. What is interesting is that there was some conversation on tapering ( the fed easing off on buying bonds and mortgage backed securities) but let me stress that there was only mention of it, no timetable for action.
4/29/2021 2:46:04 PM GMT
Financials: As of this writing (5:30am) June Bonds are 18 lower at 156’30 and 1’22 lower for the week. 10 Year Notes are 8 lower overnight at 131’28, down 18 for the week and the 5 Year notes 3 lower overnight and 10 lower for the week. inversely yields are higher with the 2 year up 2 basis points for the week at 0.17%, the 5 year up 8 for the week at 0.88%, the 10 year up 10 basis points at 1.65% and the 30 year bond up 9 at 2.32. Continued new highs in equities due to Big Tech earnings and optimism fostered by President Biden’s delivery of last nights speech is being looked at as inflationary. We remain short Bonds from above the 158’o level. Either take profits if short or use a buy stop at 157’26. Yesterday the FMOC left rates unchanged and also left unchanged their policy of purchasing approximately 120 billion dollars per month of treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Some analysts were expecting a “tapering” of this policy which c
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3/11/2021 2:52:56 PM GMT
Financials: As of this writing (6:30am) June Bonds are 3 higher overnight at 158’09 up 1’05 for the week, 10 Year Notes up 8 overnight at 132’25 and up 13for the week and 5 Year notes up 6 at 124’04 4 higher for the week. Yields were down slightly for the week with 2 year flat at 14 basis points, the 5 year flat at 0.76, the 10 year down 7 basis points at 1.50% and the 30year bond down 10 at 2.23. This reflects yesterday’s 10 year auction which had an average yield of 1.5132 % which was below expectations of 1.523. Also the CPI came in lower than expected (less inflation than expectations). My bias for the last few weeks has been the long side of the market, I now want to return to a neutral position at current levels with expectations of a sideways trend between 157’00 and 161’99 for the bonds. I will look to the short side of the market if bonds trade above 161’00.
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