Today, without question, on washington. Jonathan absolutely, and the response from washington both inefficient and insufficient with the president and a series of executive orders painting the democrats into a corner. They dont want to be seen challenging this legally. They need to find a way to get back to the negotiating table fast. Tom the executive order and the news out of hong kong as well. He didnt have time to get to it with kevin cirilli, but we may have a Vice President ial candidate today . Jonathan it has to happen at some point this week and the readthrough for this market will be interesting. Many people think this will be the next candidate for the presidency because the former Vice President will be a oneterm president if he even wins in november. Everybody will start reading into the vp pick. Itching to sayre this man is a trojan horse for the radical left. The cbs poll shows things tightening up a little bit off of democratic enthusiasm. Paper, theitmus system of Fore
Thisyou need to know on monday, futures advance through the hour. Upures up 0. 7 , dow futures 0. 2 . What i find fascinating is the centralbank action no one is talking about. It is almost as if the Central Banks dont exist in july. Jonathan it is just assumed that they continue doing what they have been doing. The ecb coming up this thursday. The focus is on the variable policy move. That comes from the fiscal authorities in the United States over the next month and in europe. European leaders meeting going into the weekend. Guest after guest lining up the hind a long europe view. Thats going to get the test this weekend. Tom part of the test is going to be the bank earnings. Lisa abramowicz, i guess we have a flat yield curve. I guess weve got a completely odd bond market. How does that benefits the banks . Lisa the answer is it does not. The flattened yield curve is negative for the banks because you borrow short, lend long. You are nothing for it. On the other hand, the low rate r
President respond to it today. I am not going to go into it at length, but let me cut to the chase. And arizona are where new york and new jersey were 85 days ago. That is what you need to know. It is extremely important to understand that something has changed in the last 24 hours. This is the story front and center today. Jonathan the numbers are worrying. They are concerning. I am not going to get excited about 3 billion of trade between the eu and the United States. This has got to be about the reopening process. Does it constrain policymakers ability to push forward in states like texas . It. you just nailed consumer confidence, i think, is probably going to be one of the biggest drivers. We are already seeing this anecdotally across the country. Meanwhile, we have economists trying to get their hands on around just what this means. We will get projection from the imf on their latest earth outlook. They already pretty good the deepest recession globally and almost a century. We ar
You just heard steven major of hsbc talk about the recovery that is out there, and it is a mystery. Already come our conversations this morning have really showed the massive ambiguity we have going into 8 30 this morning, and then jons conversation with Lawrence Kudlow near the 10 00 hour as well. It is an extraordinary day. An up market, and some stasis in the bond market as well. But we have said this all morning. It is not just about the payrolls report for the Establishment Survey. It is about the slew of Economic Data we get out today. Jonathan it is also not just about the data. It is also about the reaction to it. How will the administration respond to the bounce in the Economic Data, and how will it shape the fiscal effort in the month of july, when clearly, more help is needed . My personal worry is not that they dont something. I think for many people, including the likes of pimco, it is a matter of when, and not if. But do they move away from offsetting the income shock tow
Pricing out of recession risk. We dont see recession coming right away. Maybe august was that peak here. Chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. Sentiment is bearish. Maybe we are coming out of it. I think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. We are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. If we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. If you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. Until you can produce it, you have got to take the over. No recession, Central Banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. Jonathan another big week for treasury yields. Joining me is kathy jones and brian rehling. I want to begin with you, kathy. Morgan stanley asked the simple question, what if things are better than we thought . Are we finding things are ok . Kathy i think we are ok. The big question two weeks ago is are we going to negative yield like the rest of the world . That is so two w