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while bolstering the borders might help slow the spread of the new variant, vaccines are the first line of defence. ben wright, bbc news. scientists in botswana say the 0micron strain, which was first detected in a number of southern african countries more than a week ago, had probably been in circulation since september. health officials there, say it could already have spread widely around the world before other countries started to impose travel bans. i ve been speaking to jonathan dushoff from the south african centre for epidemiology, modelling and analysis and he told me about the fourth wave in south africa. the thing we see most clearly there was some super spreading events probably linked to university campuses, and it s very hard to track the wave because so much changes about how worried
The battle between awareness of the COVID-19’s severe consequences and fatigue from nine months of pandemic precautions shows up in the oddly shaped case, hospitalization, and fatality-count graphs, a new study suggests.
The tension between awareness and fatigue can lead to case-count plateaus, shoulder-like dynamics, and oscillations as rising numbers of deaths cause people to become more cautious before they let down their guard to engage once again in behaviors that increase risk for transmission, which, in turn, leads to rising death counts and renewed awareness.
“Human behavior is complicated.”
“Epidemics don’t necessarily have a single peak after which the risk subsides,” says Joshua Weitz, professor of biological sciences and founding director of the Interdisciplinary PhD in Quantitative Biosciences at Georgia Institute of Technology. “People’s behaviors are both influenced by and influence epidemic dynamics, potentially driving plateaus, and oscillations in