Do unseasonably warm temperatures, spring wildfires foretell devastating Oregon fire season? OregonLive.com 1 hr ago Catalina Gaitán, oregonlive.com
With the return of unseasonably warm temperatures, widespread drought, wildfires and burn bans, it’s been difficult for some Oregonians not to recall last September, when wildland blazes burned over 1 million acres, killed nine people and displaced nearly 40,000 others.
But while climate change is making wildfires more common, experts say, it takes an unlikely combination of weather conditions to create a fire season as deadly and costly as the Northwest experienced in 2020.
And even though Oregonians should be taking steps to be prepared for wildfires, they shouldn’t take this spring’s unusually warm weather as a harbinger of an especially harrowing fire season or a sign that sunny, warm days are here to stay.
Wet winter doesn t mean end to wildfire threats December 30 2020
Weather in the summer and fall is a bigger predictor of the fire season, expert says.
This year s annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference may have raised hopes among those still reeling from last summer s severe wildfires. Most of the forecasters who spoke at the Oct. 24 event sponsored by the Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society predicted a much wetter winter than the past few years, with more rain and a deeper snowpack which is already nearly back to normal levels.
That won t guarantee fewer or milder forest fires in 2021, however. According to John Saltenberger, one of the most experienced meteorologists in the region, the weather during fire season is more important that the weather before it. If the summer and fall are hot and dry enough, the previous winter and spring won t make much difference, especially with climate change raising average temperatures.