Ruud de Mooij, Michael Keen, Victoria Perry
Leaders of the advanced economies of the G7 recently made what they described as a “historic commitment” on taxation of multinational corporations (G7 2021).
The IGM Forum at Chicago Booth, which, for nearly a decade, has been regularly polling some of the world’s top economic experts in the US and Europe for their views on topical issues of public policy, invited its European and US panels to express their views on some of the issues surrounding the global deal on corporate taxes: the impact of a global minimum rate on investment, profit-shifting and low-tax jurisdictions (Acciari et al. 2021); whether a stable international tax system that includes a global minimum rate can be achieved (Laffitte et al. 2021); and a potential move from levying taxes based on where firms’ headquarters and production are located to where they make their sales.
Neue Vorwürfe gegen BaFin: Zockten Mitarbeiter auch mit GameStop- und AMC-Aktien?
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Finanzministerium soll sich aus der Bafin zurückziehen
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Yves here. The media has focused on Covid developments, and in the US, the pitched battles over the stimulus package. What is widely acknowledged by those paying attention is that the European stimulus is way too small, and that was before the prospect of yet another set of lockdowns was in the offing. Italian banks were looking plenty wobbly even before Covid took hold, and they’ve long been seen as big enough to have the potential to set off a wider conflagration.
Given the serious and continuing costs of Covid, the EU’s budget short-sightedness will produce avoidable damage to businesses. That will blow back directly to banks, since unlike the US, most corporate financing comes from banks. Interestingly, the authors think a meltdown scenario is possible and recommend direct rescues of businesses over banks.
Romesh Vaitilingam 08 February 2021
The UK’s exit from the EU was finally completed on 1 January 2021. The IGM Forum at Chicago Booth invited its panels of leading European and US economists to express their views on the likely long-term effects of Brexit on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. As this column reports, a strong majority (86% of the panellists) agrees that the UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it otherwise would have been. Views are more divided on the EU-27 economy: nearly a quarter of respondents agree that it will be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it otherwise would have been; but more than a third are uncertain; while 41% do not expect the impact to be that strongly negative.