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New model for infectious disease could better predict future pandemics New model for infectious disease could better predict future pandemics
Share Increased human-animal interactions lead to the emergence and spread of zoonotic pathogens, which cause about 75% of infectious diseases affecting human health. In this photograph, wild zebras graze alongside a pastoralist and cows in Kenya. Credit: James Hassell/Smithsonian
In the midst of a devastating global pandemic of wildlife origin and with future spillovers imminent as humans continue to come into closer contact with wildlife, infectious-disease models that consider the full ecological and anthropological contexts of disease transmission are critical to the health of all life. Existing models are limited in their ability to predict disease emergence, since they rarely consider the dynamics of the hosts and ecosystems from which pandemics emerge.