The continued resilience in U.S. activity has prompted a significant shift in our outlook for the U.S. economy. Our U.S. economics colleagues now believe the U.S. economy will avoid recession, achieve a “soft landing”, and experience continued expansion through 2025. This more resilient outlook for U.S. growth has implications for our global economic outlook. Stronger U.S. growth should allow the Eurozone and United Kingdom to recover more quickly from recession conditions, and given extensive trade linkages, should also offer support to activity in Canada and Mexico.
The U.S. economy remains the largest economy in the world. But, will the U.S. be able to maintain that status forever? In our view, the answer is no. We believe China is on a path to eventually overtake the U.S. and become the world's largest economy. However, China's structural challenges and vulnerabilities combined with tense geopolitical relations are taking a greater toll on the economy than we previously expected and earlier than originally anticipated. So, while China's rise to the world's largest economy is inevitable, reaching the top of the economic throne will likely take longer than we previously estimated.
As we head into 2024, we are downbeat on the prospects for global GDP growth. In our view, the global economy is likely to experience a period of below-trend growth in 2024, with the global economy expanding just 2.4%. Growth prospects are to be restrained by a U.S. economy likely to experience a mild recession in mid-2024, recessions in the Eurozone and U.K., as well as a Chinese economy that is decelerating amid structural challenges. We do, however, believe select economies can outperform and grow at above-trend rates. Asia, in particular India, should be the region and economy that stands out from a growth perspective.
As we head into 2024, we are downbeat on the prospects for global GDP growth. In our view, the global economy is likely to experience a period of below-trend growth in 2024, with the global economy expanding just 2.4%. Growth prospects are to be restrained by a U.S. economy likely to experience a mild recession in mid-2024, recessions in the Eurozone and U.K., as well as a Chinese economy that is decelerating amid structural challenges. We do, however, believe select economies can outperform and grow at above-trend rates. Asia, in particular India, should be the region and economy that stands out from a growth perspective.