more land areas. didn t michael that was like my punch line there. it is going to look a lot like michael with the euro model. here it is on satellite. it s out over the open water, just causing a problem for some cruise lines. the update from the hurricane center, intensity s the same, speed s the same. and as far as the intensity forecast goes, i don t want to spend a lot of time on that either because it s going to be over the warm water for three to four days. all indications are it s going to be a powerful storm. will it be a storm category 4 or 2 or 3? we ll worry about that two to three days from now. so here is the new path. low and behold, nothing has really changed because all of the computer models are so variable and they have slowed down so much, they don t want to make any big changes because they don t have the information to make any huge changes either. is there a pressure, a surprise pressure or front, is there something that s causing this trouble with the mo
is around 7:00 this evening. and i think that s the one that will have the most imminent storm surge threat. winds 130 miles per hour, upgraded to category 4 storm. and this is the old intensity forecast, but the reason why i wanted to show you is because of the threat for the storm surge this evening. the hurricane right off of ft. myers here, 8:00, so remember that, high tide at 7:00. that water will be funneling in with the back side of the storm. so naples, down to ft. myers, marco island, very densely populated areas. if you re reluctant to go, based on a weaker storm earlier on saturday, this is a very strong storm and only getting stronger again. i would get out of there. look at that. 72-mile-per-hour wind gusts new at key west and we ll see the wind gusts ramp up across the state of florida. it is a huge storm. it is not a point. even outside of that cone, you re going to get damaging
speed all throughout the storm and then we have a whole suit of radars that help us basically take a cat scan of the hurricane itself and all that data gets put out by the national hurricane center and really helps us nail down that track and that intensity forecast. thank you. i appreciate your taking the time. no problem. absolutely. and pretty stunning what he said, that he had never seen anything like that in terms of eye wall. 60 to 70 miles out from the center of that storm. that storm of course bearing right now for florida and i want to go now to the mayor of key west. and your governor, governor of florida just said this is a life threatening storm. you just heard the commander saying he s been flying for eight years into hurricanes. he has never seen one like this. what do you expect? well, i totally agree.
how would you explain that the modeling done for this kind of weather science isn t as full of phony baloney as the financial shenanigans and rocket science found in their models? the issue of going to this kind of better intensity forecast is really about getting models that are first of all, that have higher resolutions so you can actually see the structures that are important, which are not able to be done in the global models. and there are fundamental science questions about some of the things that happened in these models that have to be addressed as well. so it takes a lot of data to drive them, to initialize them from a particular storm and to test them and we go through rigorous processes of evaluating how well the different models are doing and run different types using different assumptions, different analysis of the errors. you can figure out how well it s
it will be? obviously that affects how anxious people are, what preparations governments are making ed set ra? absolutely. intensity is a big part of the picture. fundamentally, the track field rely on the scale of processes. computer models get better resolving them, the larger scale atmospheric flows. whereas intensity depends on much smaller things that happen inside the core of the hurricane and may also be related to interactions at the ocean s surface and land surfaces and eight of different processes that come into play that control intensity. but the models isn t there yet where you can get to the high resolution and really get a good intensity forecast. now, jeff, say a little more so folks can understand. when you re trying to even understand the intensity, if you re trying to get inside the core of the hurricane, what does that mean exactly?