Live from new york city, good morning. What a week ahead. Nobody earnings two days away. Coming into monday nvidia earnings two days away. We are picking up on the sent of capitulation at Morgan Stanley. Mike wilson has a new year end price target, 5400. The old price target, 4500. A wider range of outcomes and opportunities. Lisa he talked about the fact it is getting harder and harder to have any broad assumption where the market is headed. A lot of analysts have been head fake by a lot of different cycles that are overlapping and prolonging this recovery. Annmarie Jonathan Mike wilson will catch up with us tomorrow morning. That follows Deutsche Bank lifting the 2024 forecast. Looking for 5500 year end. Annmarie i think the biggest data point we will get this week that will decide the direction in the short term is going to be nvidia. Going back to Morgan Stanley, macro outcomes have been in, increasingly difficult to predict as data has become more volatile. That is the theme on th
Band to 12 cents a share. From new york, alix steel with guy johnson, welcome. We are excited about the cpi and i have to say that did not change anything for me. I do not know if that move the needle for me. Guy it is the second month where the numbers are coming through. We have a claims number that looks like it is signaling that we have a very strong labor market. All of this points to the fact that there is more work to be done. Over the last few days the fed has abdicated responsibility for bringing inflation down to target and saying that the market is doing the work for it and may be the fed needs to step up and do more. Alix and then you see the eight to nine basis point move, the more that moves and maybe the less the fed has to do as this kind of yield filters through. Guy the fed is talking more about the long end but the front end signaling that the fed needs to do more. It is interesting, you look at the Inflation Trajectory in europe and the u. K. , both point downwards
The yen recovers against the greenback. A lot of it is the dollar story as the dollar is coming through softer today after already yesterday seeing its steepest drop since december. But we are also sing that recovery in the renminbi, offshore yen, they are moving towards the 7. 19 handle. This recovery could help take some pressure off the pboc when it fixes the yen on monday. But of course, we have been focusing on dollaryen. The recovery this week really being driven by what we got from what is seen as intervention, but also from the stop and the dollar and the moves in the past 20 hours have been fairly steady. That does not smell like intervention. Potentially, this is that extension of position trimming, especially when you consider this chart, which shows you one fraction of the fx universe. Lets put the board again. Lets take a look at what are the movers in the stock markets today. As you flagged, it is the tech sectors in focus and apple suppliers running higher. We are also s
Poised potentially for of for the week of losses. In the bond market, the epicenter of the headlines. 170 is the estimate on wall street. Tom we will conflate a lot of economic talk. My major message is that the market still matter. It will be fascinating to see the reaction to the jobs report. Is a good news or bad news later this morning . Tom you know how much i hate that. I get confused by it. Employment is a big deal. 170 is a generous number and the Unemployment Rate matters. Jonathan lisa, adp was bad news. Lisa if you look at the revisions they have revised upwards. Their expectation is that the whisper number is 170,000. At what point is not good news but not too bad that means economic armageddon. They are waiting for something to break the cycle. Even though we have some common markets but they are still at 4. 7 . Jonathan there is a question in a program that was what is nobody asking you about . 2024. How bizarre is that . Its weird that we just need to get through the Fou
Doing which. And speaking of the consumer, the high end mostly holding up so far so good thats good news for taylor made, the company taking a big swing at athleisure. But we begin with todays markets and dom chu with the numbers. Its wait and see and you might suspect on a fed Rate Decision we are seeing a mixed market, but its fractional moves and not dramatically so one way or the other. Dow outpacing the broader market, up 93 points 37,908 the s p 500 down 16 points, about 1 3 of 1 . Even at the highs, we were down a modest three points and 22 at the lows so a wait and see type trading rake the nasdaq, 66 points to the downside for the nasdaq composite. 15,591 heres the current state of play for the macro market as we head into the big rate announcement later on, the twoyear note still above the 5 mark the tenyear note yield, 4. 655 there. Comex gold up to 2313 and bitcoin down below the 58,000 mark, down 4. 5 . And then the big cap tech trade, very much about earnings and the s p