The Indian government is set to release the first advance estimate of GDP for FY24 on Friday, followed by five more releases over three years. The first advance estimate is calculated using the benchmark indicator method and provisional data from high-frequency indicators. The system was introduced in 2016-17 to help with the budget exercise, estimating the nominal GDP for the next year and determining budget targets.
Research firm Nomura revised its forecast for India s FY24 GDP growth to 6.7%, up from 5.9%, following a stronger-than-expected Q2 reading. Barclays and Citigroup also adjusted their forecasts to 6.7%, from previous estimates of 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively. The report notes that while the current growth is robust, it is largely driven by the government, with private sector participation still lacking strength.
S&P Global Ratings has revised India s growth forecast for FY24 to 6.4%, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India s estimate of 6.5%. The American rating agency lowered the FY25 growth estimate to 6.4%, expecting a 7% growth in FY26 and FY27. The Indian economy likely grew better than expected at 6.7% in Q2 compared to 6.5% projected by RBI
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded India s growth forecast for FY24 to 6.3% from 6.1% due to stronger-than-expected consumption in the April-June quarter. The forecast for FY25 remains unchanged at 6.3%. India is expected to continue being the fastest-growing major economy. The global economy is projected to slow down, with growth forecasts revised downwards.