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No one expects the Federal Reserve to change interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but whether officials hold to their previous rate-cutting outlook is a more open question as the economy keeps outperforming expectations. Data since the Fed last met has confirmed policymakers' broadly shared baseline that their overnight interest rate will fall this year, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell telling U.S. lawmakers last week the central bank was "not far" from gaining enough confidence in declining inflation to reduce rates. It will be a vote, in effect, on whether improvements in the economy's supply dynamics and an unexpected jump in productivity can continue delivering a relatively pain-free easing of price pressures or if policymakers see slowing growth and tighter-for-longer policy as the cost of finishing their inflation fight.

United statesDan burnsAndrea ricciHoward schneiderJerome powellRaphael bosticChristopher wallerMichelle bowmanTorsten slokMichael gapenFederal reserveFed chair jerome powellConsumer price indexNick bunkerNorth americaIndeed hiring