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Share Scientists developed a model showing that a fragile, temporary state of immunity emerged during the early epidemic but got destroyed as people changed their social behaviors over time, leading to future waves of infection Scientists modeling the spread of COVID-19 showed that a temporary state of immunity arises due to individual differences in social behaviors. This ‘transient collective immunity’ referring to when the susceptible or more social groups collectively have been infected&mdashgets destroyed as people modify their social behaviors over time. For example, someone who isolated in the early days of the epidemic may at some point renew their social networks, meeting with small groups or large crowds.

New yorkUnited statesBrookhaven national laboratoryUniversity of illinoisSergei maslovNigel goldenfeldAhmed elbannaDonald biggar willettAlexei tkachenkoOffice of the viceIllinois department of public healthCarlr woese institute for genomic biologyUs department of energyNational science foundation faculty early career developmentGrainer college of engineeringProceedings of the national