flooding issues. we ve got to take note of that. reporter: you re a veteran of these storms. this storm has been unpredictable at best. stephanie has been covering it since yesterday. what worries you specifically? what could still be the threat, the worst case scenario? the wobble we had, it was originally going to be 47 miles off our coast line, then 60, now closer to 80 so that wobble back west is really concerning because that changes the entire picture and that s why i want people to just, if you re, wherever you are by later today, just stay inside and be safe. what kinds of conditions are you expecting even as soon as noon today? at noon we re supposed to be getting tropical force storm winds with possible hurricane gusts, so again, just not conditions to be outside in. what makes a barrier island, a city like cocoa beach so vulnerable? tell me about the bodies of water that surround it. we are literally a barrier island surrounded by water. we got the atlantic ocean
where s this going? and why do you think something will happen? we re spaying we hope it will move overnight. why do we think that? it s going to be slowly picked up. it s slowly going to be pulled to the north by what we call a trough. the high pressure weakened and it s going to draw it north. if you re just joining us, we got the new forecast at the end of this hour. we ll have a new update from the national hurricane center. i don t expect a lot of changes. they haven t made a lot of changes in the last two to three days. it s, i don t want to say set in stone, but it s as close to it as you re going to get. so this is the path, it s still off the coast by about 75 to 100 miles. we still have a little bit of the cone. we ll see at the 11:00 p.m. update if they completely take, say, all of the florida coastline out of the cone. that d be nice. but then further to the north, even with the update coming out this evening you re still going to be in the cone. here s some off our new
carolina coast. and then it skirts off to the north and east by saturday. so still many days to come with this storm. i talked about the hurricane watches and warnings. we have them in place of course for the bahama islands and here is the east coast now included. you want to keep this in mind. the tropical storm watch is from golden beach to the north. you have hurricane warnings because we could feel those winds and those are destructive winds. we ll have beach erosions, very high waves, so of course you do not want to be in the water. then we ll have that push of water as well. talking about dorian s impacts, catastrophic winds, we saw them yesterday so devastating and so sad to see all the videos. you can bet we ll see more today and it is going to take a long time before we go back in and see what really happened there and also to aid them in recovering. now for hurricane gusts across the southeast we could see that possibly where you see this pink here, the highest probability of
these models are built by man. these models are put together in a computer built by man and run by man. but the computer doesn t know what the hurricane is truly going to do. we try to model what the computer thinks is going to happen. what may happen. but like a car model, sometimes it doesn t all go together perfectly. sometimes you get a wheel that falls off. stewart, florida, tomorrow morning 70 miles per hour. melbourne, 73. daytona well over 72. and there will be hurricane gusts up and down the east coast. if that eye is 20 miles farther west, we take that number and move it to 100 miles per hour. 20 miles the other way, we drop that down to 50. there will be surge. there will be rain. and there will be damage with this. if you have started to prepare, do not stop because it still will be an impressive storm. as you can see what john is going through right now over 120 miles away from the center of the eye.
for florida. it could mean incredible amounts of storm surge and so the wind probability, the forecast intense fight over the next couple of days right now, it looks like we could get skirted with a hurricane gusts as well as vero beach, melbourne, up the coast. but it those tracks shift farther to the west, fred, there could be big changes in this. so already seeing those watches and warnings in place. at 5:00, we get the new track. and so all eyes will be on, if it s shifted farther to the west or not, fred. just 57 minutes away from that. thank you, jennifer gray. appreciate it. already reports of major damage on the abaco islands. have a look at this video of people fleeing their apartment which has been badly damaged in the storm.