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US CPI on Thursday marks this week’s apex with speeches from Fed’s Williams and ECB’s Lane, Schnabel and Villeroy scattered across the week worth mentioning as well. For today we expect technical trading to take hold. We stick to the view that markets have priced in too much Fed and ECB easing and a countermove may be in the process of materializing. The US 10-y yield finishing last week above 4% is a technical win. Next resistance is located around 4.08% which marked the upper bound of a sideways trading range that dominated the first half of 2023. Taking out 4.25% would further substantially improve the picture. Germany’s 10-y is looking at first resistance around 2.20%. EUR/USD’s short term fate is confined to a narrow 1.09/1.10 trading range.

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