Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in VT, CA, MT, KY, and state halves.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office. Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas. In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half
increase on enthusiasm of republican voters ever since the kavanaugh hearings. the question is can republicans sustain it? i think the president talking about taxes and border security are issues that continue to keep that momentum and enthusiasm up among the base. amanda, i don t know why sort of anyone believes the polls that we all focus on at times given what we have seen in the last couple years. particularly, you know, polls that say, oh, there s this huge blue wave coming and all the voter enthusiasm is among democrats, not among republicans. i mean, i feel like i heard that story so many times in 2016. and yes, you know, in the popular vote, hillary clinton won, but it wasn t enough. i can tell you what i think is giving the republicans confidence right now. they re realizing that they can confidently go forward, regardless of what trump is doing. everybody was hung on that for a long time, how will it impact my race? maybe they re seeing that it s not. i think the reason f
voter enthusiasm is among democrats. not among republicans. i mean, i feel like i heard that story so many times in 2016. and yes, you know, in the popular vote, hillary clinton won, but it wasn t enough. i can tell you what i think is giving the republicans confidence right now. they re realizing that they can confidently go forward, regardless of what trump is doing. everybody was hung on that for a long time, how will it impact my race? maybe they re seeing that it s not. i think the reason for that isn t so much trump. i think it s because the democrats haven t crafted a solid alternative agenda. think about what newt gingrich did back in the 90s with the contract with america. the democrats still haven t found a way to have an alternative vision. they re essentially saying we re going to be anti-trump, and something something health care. and so once you go back to the republican voters and they see yes, they can get through this, and yes, president trump is going to keep fight