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With inflation likely causing the Fed to keep hiking rates aggressively (more on that in the Capital Markets section at the bottom), many people in our industry are asking how high mortgage rates can go. The talk in the bond markets today is perhaps a 100-basis point increase in the fed funds rate next week and the funds rate getting to above 4.25 percent by the first quarter of next year as a current rate around 2.5 percent and inflation around 8 percent still puts the Fed way behind the eight ball. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.45 percent this morning and 30-year fixed mortgage rate is about 6.25 percent, making for a spread of about 280-basis points. If the 10-year Treasury gets to 4.25 percent, for example, would that put the 30-year fixed at 7 percent? Rates going higher from here doesn’t make much of a difference with mortgage refinance originations as the miniscule figures we are seeing now will remain miniscule with higher rates, but higher rates will have an impact of

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