Consider the until this year, the reasons why inflation was low are not hard to understand. Its a combination of slack in the labor market, declines in energy prices, and a strong dollar that pulled down import price inflation. So, whats important in determining inflation Going Forward is Inflation Expectations by some, by many, by some survey measures of professional forecasters, those have been rock solid. We do also look at household expectations, which have come down some. Marketbased measures of inflation compensation as we mentioned in the statement, they have declined and theyve been stable in recent months, but theyve declined to levels that are low by historical standards. That might suggest that Inflation Expectations have come down, but when cant get a clear read, there are risk premia built into inflation compensation that make it impossible to extract directly what exactly Inflation Expectations are. So you know, there is a miss this year. I cant say i can easily point to
If you go back to say 2013 and consider the until this year, the reasons why inflation was low are not hard to understand its a combination of slack in the labor market, declines in Energy Prices and strong dollar that pulled down import price inflation. So, whats important in determining inflation Going Forward is Inflation Expectations by some by many of professional forecasters those have been rock solid we do also look at Household Expectations which have come down some. Marketbased measures of inflation compensation as we mentioned in the statement, they have declined, and they have been snabl recent months, but they have declined to levels that are low by historical standards. That might suggest that Inflation Expectations have come down, but, when cant get at clear read, there are risk built in to inflation compensation that make it impossible to extract directly with Inflation Expectations are so, you know, there is a miss this year. I cant say i can easily point to a sufficien
Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 1 and a quarter percent. This accommodative policy should support for the strengthening in the job market and return to 2 inflation. We also decided in october we will begin the Balance Sheet Normalization Program that we outlined in june. This program will reduce our Securities Holding in gradual and predictable manner. I will have more to say about this decision shortly. First, ill review recent Economic Development of the outlook. As we expected, smoothing through some variations from quarter to quarter, Economic Activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Household spending has been supported by ongoing strength in the job market. Business investment has picked up and exports have shown greater strength. In part reflecting improved Economic Conditions abroad. Overall, we expect the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over the next few years. In the third quarter, Economic Growth
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