What to Make of North Korea s Forward-looking Economic Strategy and Prospects - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea 38north.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from 38north.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Instead of emphasizing the U.S.-South Korean ability and willingness to punish North Korea’s aggression, there is a need for the “credibility of non-punishment” if North Korea does not initiate war.
In recent weeks, there has been significant discussion of whether North Korea has made the fundamental decision to go to war with South Korea. But focusing exclusively on whether Pyongyang has made a strategic decision to go to war in the absence of evidence of an imminent attack takes the focus off other important developments, especially North Korea’s economy and its growing ties to Russia.
A recent 38 North article by Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker warns that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has likely decided to go to war against South Korea and the United States. Kim Jong-un’s recent behavior does not suggest he is not interested in war with the South.