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of new hampshire and an editor of gallup where her worked for 15 years. good to have you here. nate, this is a quote from your book, about prediction in a broad sense. interesting stuff about how we use data to make predictions and how we, as we get more an more, how we identify what we need. there s more and more polls and they drive me nuts. not only does it lose the signal, it ak sen waits the noise. if a new poll comes out with a democrat with a lead we saw it in an arizona poll. president obama winning arizona. it was a big story, obama was up two in arizona, it s an unlikely result given where the election is at right now. a good pollster will have the