right now biden at 31% nationally. and that is ahead of where jeb bush was nationally, joe leiberman, 17%. but it s not just nationally. i think the key thing here, jim, is in iowa biden s advantage nationally is translating to iowa. so last week what we saw at 28% in iowa, and that s well ahead where these three folks were. and if you were to basically extrapolate this out, biden would have about a 40% chance of winning. that s also the chances the mets make the playoffs, but i might note that. and we re the only two people in the world that care about that. joining me to discuss all this cnn political commentator david swerdlick and cnn analyst, a congressional correspondent at the new york times. david, the way this race is shaping up as we speak to harry henton who s deep in the numbers