uses a growth number that assumes a lot of things will happen that there s zero legislation for. like welfare reform and infrastructure investments. they assume this is going to happen for this to pay for itself. well, they re not in the bill. do you stand by the treasury secretary s one-page analysis. what secretary mnuchin did, and of course i stand by secretary of treasury mnuchin. what secretary mnuchin did is if we get the growth numbers that came out in the president s budget last year that was released in the spring, here are the revenue effects. they were estimated by the career professionals at treasury. they always come from three things, taxes, it looks like we re about to deliver on that. they come from deregulation and infrastructure investment. the infrastructure program is something that will be visible in the next president s budget and the deregulation is something we put out a report on today. sure enough if you look, we re probably about to have three quarters in a
that wants to run america in the future. so the question is is it enough to get the republicans through 2018 or does it blow up in their face before then? the republicans on capitol hill who i m talking to, they know the party is fractured. their point is in conversations with themselves or with reporters is we have to have a coalition. the party is so split. we have to get the suburban office park warriors to be with us. we need to get the trump voter who is obsessed with trade with us. this is an imperfect coalition. they said it s the only coalition they have, and they re going to bank on that growth number that goldman sachs was talking about to carry them over to try to erase all the tension in this country, the division to paper it over in their eyes with a tax plan. so you re talking about they re going the obama recovery? exactly. it s the obama recovery. i hate to say this, but by the way, bob, i know some republicans will angry, but i ve
governor bob ehrlich with me, jared bernstein joins me as well the former economic adviser to former vice president biden and also an msnbc contributor. the marketsave opened just a little bit lower, about flat. but jared, 0.7% sounds terrible considering what we have been hearing, we need 3% growth or we will get to 3% growth but there is an asterisk here. problem with first quarter data in recent years, technicalities like seasonal adjustments that i won t get into on this beautiful seasonal day here, but the way that you get around that is you look at the year over year growth number, that s the less noisy, more indicative number, that s what we were this quarter versus what we were a quarter a year ago. that s 1.9% trend gdp growth is 2%, we re basically on trend. that said, no white house likes a 0.7% print. that s the quarterly number, annually at an annual rate. no white house likes that number. get into the guts of the report
we have 1 1/2, 2%. if we can get out of the 2% mold and get to 3% that will be very, very powerful for other indicators like job creation. shannon: the president is all about getting the growth number up. always good to see you. bill. bill: thank you, ladies, in a moment here where is the new version of white house travel ban? they re considering dropping iraq from the list, among other changes. is that a good idea or will it make us less safe? max thornberry chairs the house armed services committee and will answer the questions live. also inside the minds of isis. benjamin hall sitting down with several killers jailed in iraq. what he found is clearly disturbing. we ll talk to ben about that. and the controversial nuclear deal with iran is under new scrutiny today. is that deal about to come undone? i have also imposed new sanctions on entities and
expecting final third quarter gdp. that will just be a print-out, really, of where we are in the growth number. so as long as there are no real surprises there, it doesn t look like there s anything on the horizon short term to destabilize this better tone to the markets. one thing, though, just keep your eye on the oil price because it hasn t all been good news as far as the markets are concerned as the oil prices fall. and the volatility has upset people. but it is just worth bearing in mind for all of us who are out there driving on the highways, it has been a definitely good-news story. and the lundberg survey says that we ve seen at least 25 cents coming off the average fuel price over the last two weeks. that means we re now 5 1/2-year lows. and if you look around the country, i just wanted to get you some comparisons here. long island has the highest prices at $2.82 a gallon. if you want the lowest, you ve got to go to tulsa. tulsa you ll get your gas for