Dive Brief:
Meat is 50% more likely than the average grocery category to see a decrease in sales when restaurants reopen, according to Numerator s new Grocery Vulnerability Index, which aims to measure the impact that increased out-of-home dining will have on supermarkets and other food retailers as pandemic restrictions ease.
Herbs and spices are 46% more likely to see a decrease in sales compared to other segments, while Numerator considers condiments (19%), packaged bakery (13%) and dairy (8%) as moderately vulnerable. Frozen foods along with baking and cooking ingredients are listed in the wait and see category, with slightly elevated risk of declines.
Candy and shelf-stable meals are least likely to see a decline in grocery purchases, along with breakfast foods, canned foods, produce and alcohol.