problem. we have no issue with putin, why are we helping ukraine? we are going to get some expert help tonight talking about those political concerns, and those practical concerns. the open questions that remain about how this war is going to go, and for how long. but today, as a first principles matter, today was history. it was the american president, surprise, in the war zone in kyiv. the first u.s. president in a war zone abroad where there was not a u.s. military presence there. to support his presence and protect him. and now tomorrow, looking ahead, it is going to be a split screen, as president putin in russia will give his equivalent of the state of the union address. at the kremlin. while on the same day with the opposite message, presumably, president, biden tomorrow will give a major speech from warsaw. a speech open to the public. a speech that is expected to be about the need for democracies to stand together.
ukrainian air space thanks to the vastly superior number and capabilities of the russian air space. that also has not happened at all despite the expectation that russian dominance of air space in this war would be inevitable. now, with ukraine having held off russia for a year, i think it is fair to say that the dominant expectation is that a long, grinding war in the long run benefits russia. however, inspiring and resilient the ukrainian people have shown themselves to be. ultimately, russia is a much bigger country and per capita it is paying a much lower cost to this war. so in that formulation, time is on russia s side. the longer the war grinds on, the more likely that russia come out the victor. not everyone holds that view but i think it is fair to say it is a widely held western
overestimating russia s capabilities and underestimating ukraine s. is it possible now after a year that we are in danger of overcorrecting for that? and overestimating what ukraine can withstand? underestimating what russia particularly the russian military is capable of? so the russian military, most people who are watching it don t think that the russian military is capable of anything extraordinary or incredible, they are not capable of any great breakthroughs. they are, they have a lot of people whom they are willing to sacrifice. they proved that they are willing to tolerate really an extraordinary number of casualties that is unimaginable for, for example, in the united states, that we could have up to the hundred 20,000 casualties and there would be no public outcry or no objection, especially in a war that, most people are interested in or don t feel strongly about or even really are afraid to discuss. you know, so of course i don t want to, i don t want to indicate that r
that was a broad expectation in the west. russia, in fact, never got any more than adam or grand river level, i think most of the west expected that russia would at least control the skies over ukraine. russia effectively eliminated ukraine s abilities to operate in the air, they will control ukraine airspace thanks to the vastly superior numbers and capabilities of the russian air force. that also has not happened at all. despite the expectations that russian dominance of airspace in this war would be inevitable. now, with russia ukraine having held off russia for a year, i think it is fairly easy to say the almond expectation is that a long grinding war in the long run benefits russia. however, inspiring and resilient the ukrainian people of doing themselves to be, ultimately russia is a much bigger country and per capital is paying a much lower cost for this war. and so in that formulation time is on russia s side. longer the war grinds on the
russia s military has lost half its territory it once occupied. young, talented russians are fleeing from the tens of thousands, not wanting to come back to russia. not just fleeing from the military. fleeing from russia itself. because they see no future in their country. president biden is right that russia s military did fail in its initial objectives in this war. and its military performance has been shockingly bad compared to expectations for what the russian military is capable of these days. on the other side. ledger, ukraine s abilities have been not very good for how they have stood up to such an assault. but it is not like anyone can clearly say that ukraine is winning, or indeed, it s not at all clear that anybody can say with any real clarity, with any