India s economy is expected to grow by 6.5% in the fiscal year 2024-25, supported by sustained government capex, soft global commodity prices, and signs of growth in the private corporate capex cycle, according to India Ratings and Research. The forecast aligns with the International Monetary Fund s projection but is below the Reserve Bank of India s estimate of 7%.
Analysts had expected government capex to further increase by 10-15% for FY25. In FY24, the government had pegged a capex target of Rs 10 lakh crore. Of the total outlay for FY25, the government has allocated Rs 2.78 lakh crore for the road transport and highways ministry, and Rs 2.55 lakh crore for railways.
The commentary on the budget has had a more positive impact on the bond market compared to the stock market. The unexpected drop in yields has cheered the bond market. The fiscal deficit number of 5.1% has exceeded the debt market s expectations. The lower net borrowing program and the possibility of rate cuts in the second half of CY24 have given confidence to the market. The capital expenditure target for this year has been revised down to 950,000 crore, but there is still a 17% increase compared to last year.