troops in iraq would take place and would not cause great regional crisis or instability. all of that seemed to play out pretty much as i predicted. i said iran would continue to be checked by a large group of regional and global powers but there would be no american or israeli strike. so far so good. now, my misses. i said that europe would survive. it has taken europeans much time and many crisis to come to the realization they will have to bail out their spend thrift and unlucky partners in greece, ireland, perhaps portugal, spain as well. germany can afford the bill. well, europe has survived but the situation did not resolve itself nearly so easily as i thought it would. my biggest miss was probably the u.s. economy which i thought would recover more vigorously than it did. what do i think this year? i m going to double down on my bets. i might have the timing wrong but the substance right.
that came place. remember, bush tax cuts expire if congress does nothing. so all of a sudden there are pressures that can bring the budget deficit down. the deficit problem gets solved in a blunt, crude way but maybe that s how democracy works. it s easy to spot all the problems we face, but i think there are also some silver linings here and that s where i m putting my money. so let s get started. you ve heard my thoughts. i m now joined by three experts who have agreed to gaze into their crystal balls for 2012. slaughter, teacher at princeton, previously did strategic planning for hillary clinton. ian bremmer president of you re arab group, global risk research firm. daniel franklin, editor of the economist magazine s world in 2012 special edition. welcome. so ian, you do this kind of
harvard physicist. a look at the way your mind works and doesn t. fascinating conversation with nobel prize winner daniel kahneman. a big birthday but an awkward time to throw a big birthday bash. i ll explain. first my take. it s the start of the new year and we will do predictions on this show. i thought i d try my own hand at some before asking others to risk their reputations. and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, i m going to look back at what i said and wrote in time magazine at the start of last year and see how i did. it s always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your predictions but here goes. the only indulgence i allow myself is to start with areas i did well. i said i thought china would moderate its foreign policy behavior recognizing its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout asia. i think that happened. i said the taliban s momentum would be broken in afghanistan. it has somewhat. i said the d
the future with a brilliant harvard physicist. then deep inside the way your mind works and sometimes why it doesn t. fascinating conversation with nobel prize winner daniel kahneman. a big birthday but an awkward time to throw a big birthday bash. i ll explain. first here s my take. it s the start of the new year and we will do predictions on this show. i thought i d try my own hand at some before asking others to risk their reputations. and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, i m going to look back at what i said and wrote in time magazine at the start of last year and see how i did. it s always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your predictions but here goes. the only indulgence i allow myself is to start with areas i did well. i said i thought china would moderate its foreign policy behavior recognizing its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout asia. i think that happened. i said the taliban s momentum wo
if congress does nothing. so all of a sudden there are pressures that can bring the budget deficit down. the deficit problem gets solved in a blunt, crude way but maybe that s how democracy works. it s easy to spot all the problems we face, but i think there are also some silver linings here and that s where i m putting my money. so let s get started. you ve heard my thoughts. i m now joined by three experts who have agreed to gaze into their crystal balls for 2012. anne marie slaughter, teacher at princeton, previously did strategic planning for hillary clinton. ian bremmer president of arab group, global risk research firm. daniel franklin, editor of the economist magazine s world in 2012 special edition. welcome.