Inflation and price increases can be widespread and impact many, like gasoline or flour, or can be very specific and impact only a small portion of the population, like guitar strings or limoncello. Continued rent increases impact many, not the least of which are the roughly 50 million tenants themselves along with their potential loan originators who could help them finance a house. Word has it that owners stay in their homes 13 years, although this source says 16 years, whereas tenants stay in their rental about 3 years for a house and 2.5 years for multi-family/apartments. There is a lot of hope being placed by lenders in tenants who move into ownership, as volume stinks. According to Curinos, August 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 26 percent YoY and increased 8 percent MoM. In the Retail channel, funded volume was down 31 percent YoY and up 8 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in August was 6.82 percent, 13bps higher than July and 124bps higher tha
Overheard last night at a bar here in Austin, Texas: “It’s hotter than the hinges to the gates of hell.” Not so hot, as residential lenders know, are volume and mortgage rates (which some believe may drift down during the final five months of 2023). No one can predict interest rates with any degree of accuracy or confidence, so originators should optimize the current situation with the cards they have been dealt, which aren’t always good. Speaking of which, an owner of a non-bank lender who was doing $40 million a month a few years ago and who is now doing $10 million a month wrote, “Rob, are you hearing that, in the acquisition of a lender, that all the premium is gone, and that deals are comprised of just an earn out over 2-3 years?” Yes, I am hearing that, for lenders doing $10 million a month. But every deal is different, and for companies that were doing $80 million a month and are now doing $30 million, then there might still be a premium