term and won 63 seats in the house. breakable most recent term, it s not where it was for democrats four years ago, when democrats had that blue wave, took back the house and trump s first midterm. but that 3.1 lead, it s pretty comparable to where things were at this point in 2020 that was barack obama s second term as president, know it s a late building, late forming wave. it took a lot of people by surprise, really up until election day, but republicans took back the senate in 2014, and they got to their highest level of house seats since 1928. you start to see that movement this week, it s brought the current picture kind of in line with what we are looking at in 2014. that could be significant as well. what has driven this shift here? one thing is certain, there was bad inflation news in the last week or so, just looking out here, the long term trend line on inflation since the start of the biden presidency, just within the last ten days, some bad news for the recent
little bit more of two weeks between now and election day. the question is, have they open up a lead for good here? couldn t get wider? or are we in for another change in these final days, these final weeks of the campaign, could democrats tighten that still once more, as they did over the summer? certainly, a significant week in terms of the movement that we have seen here. also, i think notably, putting this into context, these are the most recent wave elections we ve seen in the terms, where the opposition party, the party that does not at the white house and done really well in the midterms. you see again, republicans leading the generic ballot right now, 3. 1. where was the generic ballot at the same point in these recent wave elections, where you can see, this republican number is not where it was in 2010, when republicans had that huge mid term and won 63 seats in the house. breakable most recent term, it s not where it was for democrats four years ago, when democrats had that b
the same point in these recent wave elections, where you can see, this republican number is not where it was in 2010, when republicans had that huge mid term and won 63 seats in the house. breakable most recent term, it s not where it was for democrats four years ago, when democrats had that blue wave, took back the house and trump s first midterm. but that 3. 1 lead, it s pretty comparable to where things were at this point in 2020 that was barack obama s second term as president, know it s a late building, late forming wave. it took a lot of people by surprise, really up until election day, but republicans took back the senate in 2014, and they got to their highest level of house seats since 1928. you start to see that movement this week, it s brought the current picture kind of in line with what we are looking at in 2014. that could be significant as well. what has driven this shift here? one thing is certain, there was bad inflation news in the last week or so, just looking out h
midterm this crucial, we would expect to see, at least traditionally, the president holding big campaign rallies, but the white house has obviously taken a much more toned down approach, still focusing on biden s ability to raise lots of money for the democrats. so more private events. and an analysis from the new york times shows obama had, i think, 16 rallies in october before his first midterm. trump had 26 and you see there biden with a big fat zero for the month of october. does this hurts or help democrats in the midterms? good morning, amara. you could put another line of numbers on that chart, and i think it would explain what president biden is doing right now because after he did all of those rallies in 2010 and joe biden was there with him, president obama s democrats lost 62 seats, 63 seats in the house of representatives. you know, after doing all of those rallies, donald trump saw
too. let s talk about how they re going to affect the midterms. as you were pointing out, compared to other presidents at this point, first midterm, 43%. that looks a lot like a 43% here. looks close to obama 45. looks like to clinton 45. bush was the outlier at 62%. if this 43% looks like the trump 43%, the opposition party that particular year, the democrats gained 40 seats. i don t think we re necessarily looking at that, but the opposition party has gained anywhere from 40 seats to 63 seats. this tells a little bit of a different story than the congressional generic ballot. we will have to wait and see. big game tomorrow. you and wolf blitzer, no doubt,