night, most republicans conceded in this election year, her tweet last night tells us we re in for a little bit of a rocky ride here. arizona knows bs when they see it. this is not bs, this is math. is it about candidates or the state, for example? so blake masters also losing, finchem, the secretary of state nominee for the republican party who is a really election denier, is it about candidate quality, mitch mcconnell, or about a shifting state? i think in arizona it is about both. the demographics of the state are changing. joe biden was the first democrat to carry for president since 1996. ross perot was on the ballot, a three-way race as well. there is no question the state is changing. there is no question it is an incredibly competitive state. we re going to learn more, again. the senate map this year, more favorable to democrats. mark kelly won a convincing win in arizona. katie hobbs will be the next governor with a much more narrow win in 2024. we ll see senator sinema on
the republican mark finchem, big election denier. he is running more like blake masters, less like kari lake, right? you can see it right there. right. there we go. that s five points. go back to i want to stand kelly for one more second, to do the math real quick, so people get a sense of this. let s say the next batch, very conservatively, we bump him up to a difference of 110,000 votes. that s very conservative. if you had 290,000 outstanding, if masters won that 200 to 90, that would get him even. those kinds of margins that you would have to be talking about for that final batch to get, for him to get back, that s along those lines. again, this is back of the envelope. to give people a sense of the landslide that would have to be happening in that last batch of votes. i think you look at it this way. that last batch of votes, i say that as a republican batch of votes in 2020, trump was generally winning those updates with 58 or 59% of the vote over joe biden.
290,000 votes that were dropped off on election day by voters. there were some reason to think that we don t know there are some reason to think that could be a pretty republican batch of votes. the question is, can he build a big enough league here, even if masters is doing well, really well with that vote, kelly winds anyway. kelly is building the kind of advantage here where masters would have to put up a monster number. they have said, they are not going to we had indication last night that they might release some of that tonight and give us a sense of it. but they did say at their press conference earlier tonight, that none of that will be released tonight. that s really important. we will get a sense of the vote. even if kelly was dancing, one thing to keep in mind is, it s a different story in the governor s race. katie hobbs, the democrat, is running significantly behind masters. she s ahead of kari lake. if that last batch is heavily republican, that may not be enough to
kari lake and mark finchem in arizona, like mehmet oz, like j.d. vance in ohio. he handpicked them because he expects them to be loyal to him the next time. so while trump is not personally named on the ballot next week, he s very much on the ballot in that all these handpicked loyalists are installed than the plot we re talking about here, which failed in 2020, we ll have a much more successful chance of overturning our democracy next time. in fact, to your point, he s kind of what you might call a single issue voters on this. and we saw this in this tape that came out. we played it on the program. where he blake masters, he s the handpicked trump candidate for senate he s definitely got a shot at winning the race. tight race. he calls and basically says, yeah, there s one thing you ve got to keep hammering on. the election was rigged. that s the most important that s all he cares about. it s all by his own what he s focused on.