A negative value for time makes no sense and last time which is a human construct was going to in less humans so go back look at that episode just search on you tube kaiser for s. C. B. Agee to find that because it was an interesting thought provoking episode in 2019 so last year at this time of course the markets were tumbling and everything was kind of chaos and everybody thought its all over and the fed stepped in so that was the end of another thing weve always been talking about and that was that you cant taper a ponzi and the fed stepped in and theyve been intervening more more all year long it started with them just stopping raising rates member they ended the year John Williams at the fed had said that they were going to he only saw like one or 2 more Interest Rate rises and 2019 of course they couldnt do that and theyve been cutting rates and theyve been intervening in the repo markets heres a tweet 2019 was the opposite of 28. Team a global rally lifted only every boat long s
Where in argentina were going to be heading to Rio De Janeiro those will be our next episodes from there as you see were in the Southern Hemisphere where we all it took us decades of my life to learn that its warm down here during the cold christmas up north so from now on i am going to be where its warm christmas much better than that cold sand its nice and warm down here so were going to look back at 2019 and you know what were the big themes of what we got right what we got wrong we didnt get anything wrong so. We definitely got right heading down to the Southern Hemisphere for christmas but the big themes ive been weve been looking at over the past few over the past decade it was this a few decades it feels like weve been doing this show for decades but its just spent 10 years this autumn we got right lobel is a sion and d. Dollars a show and those are the 2 big themes and they are really really really reaching across the headlines around the world and its undeniable to anybody now
So last year at this time of course the markets were tumbling and everything was kind of chaos and everybody thought its all over and the fed stepped in so that was the end of another thing weve always been talking about and that was that you cant taper a ponzi and the fed stepped in and theyve been intervening more more all year long it started with them just stopping raising rates member they ended the year John Williams at the fed had said that they were going to he only saw like one or 2 more Interest Rate rises and 2019 of course they couldnt do that and theyve been cutting rates and theyve been intervening in the repo markets heres a tweet 2019 was the opposite of 2018 a global rally lifted every boat long strategies made money through most of the year stocks bonds and commodities had positive returns only in Industrial Metals and 0 song game of spot currencies did major assets post. Last. Cant taper a ponzi scheme thing and the fed stepping in to flood the market with cash to ke
Buybacks which up and told recently were illegal even do a stock buyback so this looks like nosebleed territory but its been this way now for a few years and it doesnt seem to be any stopped any any any any stop sign in the road it does seem to be any end to this for years id say all through the ninetys and the early 2000 most people in the market still had memories of real markets that you would genuinely that there was no fed to rescue everything so since greenspan in the introduction the put you know it took people a few years to realise that any. Time any even a slight i mean when when markets go down 11 points them up but the fed intervenes like so the fact is that. People now are the opposite of what they used to be they used to expect a cycle now they dont expect a cycle every participant in the market does not expect a cycle to ever be able to fulfill itself so that the fed will always tend to be of course i think that makes it probably more dangerous for when they do lose cont
Anything and i have nothing to add to that. Because that seems absolutely positively correct the fed will keep rates unchanged and possibly have a message that they are kind of encouraging inflation to go higher one of the most important statements that i think has gotten less play than it should is jay powell said in late october we would have to see rise inflation persistent to consider raising Interest Rates to fight inflation so the fed wants inflation to be higher actually. And theyve contextualized this by saying 2 was our target for many years and we fell short and now we need to fill the gap of which makes no sense to me whatsoever i think it is cover for wanting Interest Rates to basically be below the inflation rate which is the game planner for central bangs and developed countries really around the world and so now we have the tenyear treasury yield and the core cpi is up higher than 2 and yet the Interest Rates are kept below that so foed knows that we have a det roche in