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International trade in a post-Trump and COVID-19 world

FREEPIK I am not sure if it’s an actual Clausewitz principle but Ian Fleming once wrote of James Bond, methodically preparing en route to a dangerous mission (in Moonraker), “had achieved Clausewitz’s first principle. He had made his base secure.” In any event, it’s not a bad principle to consider for international trade in these uncertain times. With GDP contracting 8.5% and even the most optimistic of economists, UA&P professor Bernie Villegas, stating that the Philippines should expect to have a mere 4% growth this year, the times really provide an opportunity for thoughtful reconsideration. Add to that recent news of nearly half a million workers laid off in 2020’s final three months, resulting in a Philippine unemployment rate of 8.7%, equivalent to 3.8 million jobless Filipinos.

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