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Fed Staff Projected Mild Recession Starting Later In 2023
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Fed Staff Projected Mild Recession Starting Later In 2023
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this post authored by Fernando M. Martin, Research Officer and Economist
The U.S. fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented in speed and size. The federal government enacted massive programs to assist households and businesses, mostly from April to June. The combined effects of this assistance and a depressed economy increased the federal deficit by about $2 trillion, resulting in a record deficit of $3.1 trillion for fiscal year 2020.1 As a reference, the previous record was $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2009, in response to the Great Recession, which followed the financial crisis of 2007-08.
Fiscal deficits are naturally financed with debt. Consequently, federal debt held by the public increased by $4.2 trillion during fiscal year 2020, reaching $21 trillion.2 As with government assistance, a significant proportion of this new debt (about $2.9 trillion) was issued from April to June.
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